March 23, 2020Uncategorized
Keep cool in this climate (feedback wanted)
Business advisors have been put through the ringer over the last couple of weeks. If you’ve been fielding “the world is ending” calls, you know who is keeping cool & who needs to acclimatize.
Customers keeping cool will innovate and be nimble. They will look for growth opportunities outside of BAU, in preparation for a longer than expected lock-down period.
The ones that don’t make it will think short term, make poor decisions and take shortcuts.
It is clear that this will one day pass, however the aftershocks (which this uneducated economist estimates over 18 months) will haunt receivables ledgers for years to come. You can take that to the bank.
There are four stages of grief that I have identified.
All clear – If you produce sanitary products, make hay while the sun shines. Those that are global auditor/advisor to publicly traded companies, the next 6-months will be a fee grab based on fear from companies chasing their tail. It will be the stuff you tell your grandchildren about.
Sadly, but clearly at the expense of Mum & Dad investors.
Wary – Those with low fixed wages & occupancy and loans that are manageable will be fine. Sole traders, small service businesses, designers, architects, boutique accounting & tech/IT solutions.
Feeling the pinch – Estate agents. These guys could never plan for this. Imagine your tenants who occupy some of the cheaper rentals. A casual workforce who will most certainly lose their jobs.
Unsecured lenders generally lend at high rates to SME’s in retail, medical sole trades, hospitality & construction. You do the math.
Shitting yourself – Retailers, Hospitality & Call-centres not only grapple with the ongoing high wages costs, but they have lost their ability to create revenue…
The government has offered generous stimulus packages as you have seen, however the short-term cash flow problem will be enough to hammer the economy and small business. Nobody truly knows how long this will last. For those that last, how are they going to hit the ground running?
We would love to know your strategies, so could you please send us the strategies you will be employing with the clients you advise, and we will collate and post them.
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